6-Prime Power

You’re significantly ahead here - your winning chances are around 83% and half of those wins will be gammons. How do you best close the deal?

Running one checker leaves the risk that your remaining blot could be hit back behind White’s decent prime, increasing the risk of you having to crunch. But hitting on the ace point means sacrificing your 6-point which is giving you such a commanding lead, and still means you could be hit back behind White’s prime and suddenly be behind in the race. Two very different approaches. One is right, one is a big blunder. Which do you choose?

If your analysis ended at this point, you might well be stuck between choices. But think about the upsides if you’re not hit. When you run you’re allowing White to continue to play, and your gammon chances drop to around 28% as a result. When you hit, you’re preventing White from playing on, and preserving all of your lovely gammons.

The right move is to give up your 6-prime, and to savour the flavour of the gammons instead. 7/1* 7/4 it is.