Credits
XG skin design by Rain
Analysis
Bearing in against opposition is a variant of Pay Now Pay Later. You want to minimise risks for yourself over the next several rolls, not just the immediate roll.
In this position White already has a strong board, which will only get stronger, and you only have a small racing lead. Your options are 13/6 which is completely safe this roll, or 9/3 4/3 which leaves 3 shots but fills in your homeboard gap and will make for a safer bearoff in the coming rolls. Which one is right?
It turns out it’s not close, and it’s all about the race. You have to factor in the likelihood of White escaping their last checker, and view that as another form of immediate risk.
If White had a couple of checkers back on their 12pt you’d be correct to choose 13/6 and focus purely on immediate safety. But with the race so close, filling in your homeboard gap also has the purpose of making it harder for White’s last checker to escape,and that’s what makes it the right option. 9/3 4/3 is correct, while 13/6 is an amazing -0.195 blunder.