Credits
Quiz Problem15 (modified) from chapter 2 of "Backgammon Masterclass" by Masayuki Mochizuki and Marc Olsen
XG skin design by Rain
Analysis
Once more Quiz Factor may well kick in here, and hopefully push you towards the ambitious, and correct, 16/15 16/13 (The two other ‘small error’ moves are 11/7 or 16/15 11/8). It feels like one of those positions that are obvious when you know, but that you might not think of over the board.
You have equal board strength with better structure, the race is even, and - crucially - White has a blot in their home board. You want to start moving your checkers home and that blot gives you the perfect moment to do that - facing a stripped midpoint and creating lovely duplication of 3’s.
If White didn’t have a blot then the safer 11/7 would have been right - preserving your position and waiting for a better roll.