I Will Survive - But How?

This problem is from Michi’s superb 'Back Checker Strategy'. If you haven’t read it – do yourself a favour and do so now.

The challenge here is how best to stay in the game with a checker stuck behind a 6-prime. After we’ve entered with bar/23*, do we play quietly with 13/8 and aim to minimise our losses? That’s definitely better than 6/1*, which would just increase the chance that white sits happily on the bar while we have to keep moving and crunching.

But there’s a better option. 8/3 slots a point we need to try and make our own prime, maximising our chances of forcing white to crunch. We’re in a losing position no matter what we play, and this move certainly increases our gammon losses when we’re hit, but it’s the right move that gives us our best hope of rescuing the day.