Pay Now or Pay Later?

White's board is already strong, and is about to get a lot stronger. It looks like we definitely don't want to get hit. 21 is a poor roll to start to bring our last checkers home, and exposing two blots really doesn't feel great. 8/6 8/7 it is then, right?

But look again. White has three forward blots of their own. Moving 13/11 13/12 leaves only indirect shots. Crucially that means white would use up all their dice roll to hit us, leaving six blots around the board in the process, none of which they can cover. Risky for them. Maybe we'll hit several of those blots and go on to a gammon win! And if not we're much nearer to home and safety.

13/11 13/12 is the right move. Anything else is a blunder.