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Credits
Problem 24 from "Classic Backgammon Revisited" by Jeremy Bagai
XG skin design by Rain
Analysis
As Bagai says - “the ultimate slot-or-play-safe position”.
So - Who’s winning here? Where’s the race? How do the inner-board strengths compare? What is your aim as Black from this position? All of those factors point towards playing safe with 13/8, no matter how ugly. A surprising number of next rolls play safe or are actively constructive. Even if Black has to leave a blot later that’s hit, there’s plenty of game left. Black is in a fine position here, and should play safe and wait.
To quote Bagai quoting Robertie “Potential shot equity in stacked positions can easily be overestimated. Never forget that backgammon is primarily a race.”
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