Run, Hold, Hit, Mix?

This recent position in the London League stumped several good players. You’re Black, and in this position xG says you have around 58% winning chances. You’re a long way behind in the race, which suggests you’ll have to hit White at some point to win. But with their four-point board, is now the time to leave two blots in your own inner board? There are several decent running options. Or perhaps we opt for a holding pattern for now to wait for the right moment to pounce? Or do we somehow attempt to mix up the options?

It turns out there’s only one correct move - anything else is a blunder. You have to contain White’s back checkers. That means a hit is essential. But since you’re likely to be hit back, you also need to think about containing them over the next few rolls. That means maximising your chances to hit them as they come round, which in turn means you want to threaten in the outfield.

22/17 11/5* is the play you need.