Are Early Risks Worth It?

The first few rolls are when you set out your stall - the shape of the early-to-mid game will be decided here, so you want to move strategically, thinking about the game to come.

Sometimes you’ll want to play carefully - eg if you’ve escaped a checker with a good racing lead you’ll handle an awkward roll with a safe play, to avoid being hit back and lose your advantage.

But - in many cases the early game is when you want to take risks. Your opponent hasn’t got a strong board, the future of the mid-game is up for grabs, and the price of any risk isn’t so high. That’s the case here. You’re behind in the race, with more checkers back than your opponent, and you don’t mind so much if you get another checker hit back. So mix things up a little bit!

Bar/24 13/9 is the worst of the ‘reasonable’ plays - three checkers on the acepoint is bad, and securing the 9 point isn’t so important right now.

Bar/21 9/8 and Bar/20 are also too safe, but slightly better in that they each give you more flexibility to grab a future high anchor.

If you count the rolls though, you’ll see that Bar/21 24/23 gives you much higher odds of grabbing a future anchor, at very low risk. It’s only a small error.

But best of all? Unstack that mountain and prepare to build your board with Bar/21 6/5. Things could go very well for you, and if you’re hit back it’s hardly the end of the world.