Don’t Let Them Escape

You are clearly winning here - around 67%, with very low gammon chances for either side. The main (only?) way White can win is by escaping their back checker, but if they do they’ll have a huge racing advantage and the game could quickly turn around. So what’s the best way to contain that last checker?

The key is realising that the gap on your 4pt is your weakness - if White rolls a 2 before you fill that gap they are poised to escape. And with two checkers semi-buried on the 3pt it won’t be so easy for you to make the point naturally.

So - best to slot the point now. If White’s going to roll a 2 next go you’d rather be hit (you’re favourite to enter off the bar and you’ll have another checker back to try and hit White as they come round). And if you’re going to slot, then best to bring in an extra builder to help make it next roll. 15/9 8/4 is the right move here. You’ll weep if White rolls 52, but other than that you’re still in the game. If White doesn’t hit you then you can cash (it would be a correct double/pass).

19/9, 19/13 15/11, or 19/13 8/4 are all middling errors. If you chose 15/5 it’s a blunder - although you bring extra builders to bear on the 4pt, you do so at the cost of losing firepower in the outfield. And if you chose to hit with 8/2* 15/11 it’s a triple blunder - instead of White only having good 2’s, you give them good 4’s as well.