More Containment

You want to prevent White’s blot escaping. Hitting it (with 3/2*(2) or variations on that) is the wrong idea – it gives White more good numbers to escape. I hope you didn’t choose 11/9(2) either, which gives White four rolls that jump past you while leaving you only indirect shots. If you stayed on the 11pt you’d still have a direct shot after the same four escaping rolls. 

Like last week's position it’s the gap in your prime (this time the 5pt) that is your main weakness. If you choose to slot it like before, then 11/10 8/5 is your best option, maximising your chances of making a 6-prime.

But there’s a big difference in this position – the race is much closer. That means it’s not quite as urgent to slot the 5pt. Added to which, in this position White’s homeboard structure is much less favourable to you if you do get hit. Slotting here is a mistake.

What about 11/7, which is a pretty safe way of preparing to make the 5pt later? The problem with this move is that it doesn’t do anything directly to address your weakness.

So - the right choice is to fill the 5pt now, and the only way to do that is by giving up the 7pt. That might seem like you’re swapping one gap for another, but crucially it’s another homeboard point, which works for you in all the situations where you ending up hitting later in the game. Making your 5pt is rarely wrong.

7/5(2) is the answer.