Prime vs Prime (?) Cube

Prime vs Prime positions are typically regarded as double/takes - because of the high volatility over the next couple of rolls.

But this (admittedly slightly artificial) position is different. As Black you face zero volatility for your next roll. You can handle anything safely, and then you’ll either be playing on for a gammon or cubing White out. So there’s nothing to be gained from cubing now, even though your winning chances are around 74%. It is a huge no double / take.

How huge? Try a 12x blunder huge. And why? Because cubing means that you have to play to the end, and suddenly all those awkward rolls where you have to bury checkers open up the chance of blots being hit in the coming few rolls. The volatility rockets because you have to live with any consequences. Almost a quarter of your next rolls are ‘anti-jokers’.

I suspect over the board many players would drop as White. But gammons are tiny, your timing is great, and your recube potential would be massive if you hit a blot. Even if Black can point on you, they still have a lot of work to do to close their home board and/or roll their prime home, and the chances are good that you’ll have a blot to shoot at eventually.