There’s Always The Right Time…
finishing our mini-series on containment

Credits
Problem 373 from ‘501 Essential Backgammon Problems’ by Bill Robertie
XG skin design by Rain
Analysis
White has come up to the edge of your prime, and is threatening to escape with any 6, to give them decent game-winning chances given their huge racing lead. So do you hit them now with 6/2*, or play passively and wait?
Bill Robertie - whose book this problem comes from - says absolutely Yes to the hit. But thinking has moved on, and it’s now understood as a big blunder. White’s board is just too strong, and if you’re hit back you could easily spend several rolls on the bar trying to come back in. White has reasonable gammon chances after the loose hit. Better just to wait and build a stronger attack - and wait to see if White does indeed crunch in the meantime.
There are a couple of small error moves, but best overall is 17/14 (if White is going to roll 66 you want to be hit to maintain some contact and (small) winning chances) and 15/11 to increase your coverage of the outfield while starting to bring more checkers round.
It’s a tricky and subtle position, and you maximise your winning chances by making the subtle play.