Timing, Timing, Timing

Whatever you decide here, my guess is you feel sure it’s the right move. You’ll either confidently choose 8/4(2) 6/2 (2) or 13/9(3) 8/4 (or maybe 6/2). Only one is correct - the other is a blunder.

The key here is timing, and recognising that you are not currently winning this game (you have about 46% winning chances). The pipcounts will be almost identical after this roll, so one of you needs to roll big numbers (ideally doubles) or hit at the right moment with a strong board. Which structure is most likely to help you do that? The answer is 13/9(3) 8/4 and it’s not even close. You bring down lots of checkers that will allow you to handle almost any dice combinations over the next few rolls, chucking your checkers safely into your home board (and hopefully building a strong board while you do so). At some stage you’ll roll the lucky doubles to bring the barpoint checkers home - and if you don’t, you were never going to win this.

Trying to build your board now looks good, but it leaves you with far fewer safe options over the next few rolls. You’ll have to start bringing checkers round from the bar or mid point, with no guarantee you can do so safely.